by Christian Knapp ’14
Recently, there has been a serious push to switch from using to the Electoral College to elect the President of the United States to having the president elected from the popular vote. The motivation for this seems obvious. In the United States there is not just one presidential election, there are 51 (one in each state, plus one for the District of Columbia).
Through the use of a “winner take all” system in all states except for Maine and Nebraska, individual votes often have little meaning. For example, if a Democrat from Tennessee voted for Obama in the previous election, his or her vote would not effect the national election. The Republicans would win an overwhelming majority of the popular vote in the state, giving all of Tennessee’s 11 electoral votes to Romney. When it comes time to add up the electoral votes (which officially takes place in January) this citizen’s vote will not be counted.
It is well known that it is possible to win the Electoral College without winning the national popular vote, which begs the following question: What is the minimum number of individual votes needed to win the electoral college? I decided to find out.
Before I explain my calculations it is first important to note three things. First, I counted Maine and Nebraska as not being able to split their electoral votes, which they did not end up doing in the recent election. Second, I assumed a 100% voter turnout, an extremely unlikely occurrence. Third, for my eligible voter data I used a professor from George Mason University’s estimates, which are available here.
The first thing I did was find how many votes were needed to win each state. The formula I used to calculate the minimum number of votes to win the majority in each states half of all eligible voters plus one. For example, with 10 voters 5 would be half and 6 (5+1) would be a majority. In cases where an odd number had to be divided, 0.5 was added instead of 1. In this instance, if a state has 9 voters, 4.5 would be half and 5 (4.5+0.5) would be a majority.
Next, I divided the minimum number of votes needed to win each state, by each state’s number of electoral votes. For example, in order for a candidate to win the state of Alabama he or she must secure 1,761,169 votes. When 1,761,169 votes are divided by Alabama’s 9 electoral votes the quotient is 195,685. Here’s the states in order from lowest to highest ratio of minimum votes needed to win the state to electoral votes.
States
Number of Votes Necessary to Win All Electoral Votes in Each State
Electoral Votes Gained
Total Number of Electoral Votes Gained by Winning Each State
Total Number of Votes Required to Win Each State
*Wyoming
211,393
3
3
211,393
*District of Columbia
237,434
3
6
448,827
*Vermont
247,934
3
9
696,761
*Alaska
254,893
3
12
951,654
*North Dakota
266,526
3
15
1,218,180
*Rhode Island
384,393
4
19
1,602,573
*South Dakota
306,156
3
22
1,908,729
*Delaware
330,291
3
25
2,239,020
*Hawaii
491,472
4
29
2,730,492
*New Hampshire
506,871
4
33
3,237,363
*Montana
386,574
3
36
3,623,937
*Maine
523,951
4
40
4,147,888
*Nebraska
660,975
5
45
4,808,863
Idaho
547,246
4
49
5,356,109
*New Mexico
716,188
5
54
6,072,297
*West Virginia
723,577
5
59
6,795,874
*Nevada
888,202
6
65
7,684,076
*Utah
917,834
6
71
8,601,910
*Kansas
1,017,447
6
77
9,619,357
*Arkansas
1,058,335
6
83
10,677,692
*Mississippi
1,076,417
6
89
11,754,109
*Connecticut
1,279,236
7
96
13,033,345
*Iowa
1,131,688
6
102
14,165,033
*South Carolina
1,735,455
9
111
15,900,488
*Minnesota
1,938,377
10
121
17,838,865
*Oklahoma
1,357,759
7
128
19,196,624
*Alabama
1,761,169
9
137
20,957,793
*Arizona
2,180,039
11
148
23,137,832
*Oregon
1,414,675
7
155
24,552,507
*Colorado
1,827,023
9
164
26,379,530
*Kentucky
1,624,152
8
172
28,003,682
*Washington
2,438,985
12
184
30,442,667
*Maryland
2,045,944
10
194
32,488,611
*Louisiana
1,651,258
8
202
34,139,869
*Georgia
3,341,301
16
218
37,481,170
*New Jersey
2,941,488
14
232
40,422,658
*Wisconsin
2,116,997
10
242
42,539,655
Texas
8,050,099
38
280
50,589,754
*Tennessee
2,355,892
11
291
52,945,646
California
11,810,036
55
346
64,755,682
*Indiana
2,379,551
11
357
67,135,233
Massachusetts
2,390,711
11
368
69,525,944
*Missouri
2,205,407
10
378
71,731,351
Illinois
4,451,501
20
398
76,182,852
Virginia
2,904,385
13
411
79,087,237
Michigan
3,658,624
16
427
82,745,861
New York
6,649,784
29
456
89,395,645
Florida
6,674,402
29
485
96,070,047
North Carolina
3,485,435
15
500
99,555,482
Ohio
4,322,480
18
518
103,877,962
Pennsylvania
4,837,190
20
538
108,715,152
In this situation 50,589,754 votes are needed. That’s only 23.2% of eligible voters. So this must be the least amount of votes required to win the presidency in an election with 100% voter turnout right? Wrong.
Here you’ll notice that although I ordered the states from lowest to highest minimum number of votes to win state to electoral votes, the first time the states add up to a number above 270 electoral votes is after winning Texas, which brings the total up to 280 votes. Because I can select another combination of states that brings the total closer to 270, I can lower the number of total votes needed.
On the above table, you’ll see an asterisk before each state that ends up on my final table. Not every “small” state leads to the perfect combination of electoral votes, which is why a few of the states with a less favorable combination of electors to voters are included in the list.
In the situation below, only 48,933,59 votes are needed. That means in a presidential election with only two candidates, a candidate only needs to win 22.5% of the popular vote in order to win the Electoral College. This means that someone can become president with less than ¼ of all voters casting their vote for him or her.
States
Number of Votes Necessary to Win All Electoral Votes in Each State
Electoral Votes Gained
Total Number of Electoral Votes Gained by Winning Each State
Total Number of Votes Required to Win Each State
Wyoming
211,393
3
3
211,393
District of Columbia
237,434
3
6
448,827
Vermont
247,934
3
9
696,761
Alaska
254,893
3
12
951,654
North Dakota
266,526
3
15
1,218,180
Rhode Island
384,393
4
19
1,602,573
South Dakota
306,156
3
22
1,908,729
Delaware
330,291
3
25
2,239,020
Hawaii
491,472
4
29
2,730,492
New Hampshire
506,871
4
33
3,237,363
Montana
386,574
3
36
3,623,937
Maine
523,951
4
40
4,147,888
Nebraska
660,975
5
45
4,808,863
New Mexico
716,188
5
50
5,525,051
West Virginia
723,577
5
55
6,248,628
Nevada
888,202
6
61
7,136,830
Utah
917,834
6
67
8,054,664
Kansas
1,017,447
6
73
9,072,111
Arkansas
1,058,335
6
79
10,130,446
Mississippi
1,076,417
6
85
11,206,863
Connecticut
1,279,236
7
92
12,486,099
Iowa
1,131,688
6
98
13,617,787
South Carolina
1,735,455
9
107
15,353,242
Minnesota
1,938,377
10
117
17,291,619
Oklahoma
1,357,759
7
124
18,649,378
Alabama
1,761,169
9
133
20,410,547
Arizona
2,180,039
11
144
22,590,586
Oregon
1,414,675
7
151
24,005,261
Colorado
1,827,023
9
160
25,832,284
Kentucky
1,624,152
8
168
27,456,436
Washington
2,438,985
12
180
29,895,421
Maryland
2,045,944
10
190
31,941,365
Louisiana
1,651,258
8
198
33,592,623
Georgia
3,341,301
16
214
36,933,924
New Jersey
2,941,488
14
228
39,875,412
Wisconsin
2,116,997
10
238
41,992,409
Tennessee
2,355,892
11
249
44,348,301
Indiana
2,379,551
11
260
46,727,852
Missouri
2,205,407
10
270
48,933,259